A Discussion on Prediction of Wind Conditions and Power Generation with the Weibull Distribution∗

Assessment of profitability, based on the accurate measurement of the frequency distribution of wind speed over a certain period and the prediction of power generation under measured conditions, is normally a centrally important consideration for the installation of wind turbines. The frequency distribution of wind speed is evaluated, in general, using the Weibull distribution. In order to predict the frequency distribution from the average wind speed, a formula based on the Rayleigh distribution is often used, in which a shape parameter equal to 2 is assumed. The shape parameter is also used with the Weibull distribution; however, its effect on calculation of wind conditions and wind power has not been sufficiently clarified. This study reports on the evaluation of wind conditions and wind power generation as they are affected by the change of the shape parameter in the Weibull distribution with regard to two wind turbine generator systems that have the same nominal rated power, but different control methods. It further discusses the effect of the shape parameter of prototype wind turbines at a site with the measured wind condition data.